Botafogo 2-1 Corinthians — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 15 Sep 2024

Botafogo
2-1 HT 1-0
Corinthians
📅15/09/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Botafogo vs Corinthians Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.61
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.71
Over 2.5
39%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.06
No
59%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.83
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.12
6+ Goals
8%
19.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.83 — our 32% vs market 29.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.1
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.45
X/1
19%
3.64
X/2
11%
10.45
X/X
12%
4.7
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
8%
9.0
2/X
7%
17.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
58%
-8.6pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.2pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.4pp
61%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.9pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.2pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Botafogo v Corinthians — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Corinthians EU Bookmakers 21%
-6% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +7%
1.59/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.48
-1% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
347 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 78%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
24.6 Crosses 15.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Botafogo vs Corinthians Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Corinthians
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.18 xG 1.18
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
378 Passes 420
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
02.06.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 0-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
23.09.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 1-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
12.05.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 3-0 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
31.07.2022 Corinthians Corinthians 1-0 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
10.04.2022 Botafogo Botafogo 1-3 HT 0-3 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
27.12.2020 Botafogo Botafogo 0-2 HT 0-1 Corinthians Corinthians BR1

Botafogo 2-1 Corinthians — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
2-1
AWAY Corinthians
2.30 xG 1.99
57% Ball Possession 43%
21 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
458 Passes 326
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
28 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Corinthians
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo squeezed past Corinthians 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Botafogo as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Botafogo had 57% of the ball to Corinthians's 43%, shots finished 21-12, expected goals 2.30 to 1.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Corinthians led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Botafogo and 1.17 for Corinthians.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Corinthians?

Botafogo 2-1 Corinthians in the Brazil - Serie A on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Corinthians?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 49%, draw 27%, Corinthians 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Botafogo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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