Palmeiras 5-0 Criciuma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.32
Draw
22%
4.81
Away
20%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.32
2-3 Goals
37%
1.88
4-5 Goals
24%
2.98
6+ Goals
13%
8.96
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.32 — our 26% vs market 18.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.55
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
21.85
X/1
24%
3.44
X/2
8%
18.35
X/X
9%
7.2
2/1
6%
23.15
2/2
7%
14.75
2/X
8%
22.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
71%
-12.9pp
22%
Draw
18%
+3.9pp
20%
Away Win
11%
+9.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.5pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Criciuma EU Bookmakers 14%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
2.01/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.50
+8% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +58% / +8%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
381 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 78%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
27.0 Crosses 12.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
4W-0D-0L
AWAY Criciuma
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.88 xG 1.25
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
344 Passes 255
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 24
32 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 7
02.06.2024 Criciuma Criciuma 1-2 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
11.09.2014 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
21.04.2014 Criciuma Criciuma 1-2 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
11.12.2004 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-2 HT 1-1 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
5-0
AWAY Criciuma
1.86 xG 0.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
378 Passes 324
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Criciuma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras ran out comfortable winners over Criciuma 5-0. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Palmeiras had 53% of the ball to Criciuma's 47%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 1.86 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Palmeiras and 1.00 for Criciuma.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Criciuma?

Palmeiras 5-0 Criciuma in the Brazil - Serie A on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Criciuma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 59%, draw 22%, Criciuma 20%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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