Bragantino 2-2 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 15 Sep 2024

Bragantino
2-2 HT 1-1
Gremio
📅15/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Bragantino vs Gremio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.27
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.75
Over 2.5
43%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.98
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
3.91
6+ Goals
10%
17.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 29% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.48
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
8%
13.65
X/1
12%
5.06
X/2
16%
5.7
X/X
11%
4.42
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
12%
4.12
2/X
10%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-2.4pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.7pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+0.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.8pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bragantino v Gremio — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bragantino EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 37%
-6% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +5%
1.20/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.44
+6% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -18%
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
321 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 80%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
20.2 Crosses 16.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7

Bragantino vs Gremio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bragantino
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Gremio
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.32 xG 1.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
397 Passes 310
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.06.2024 Gremio Gremio 0-2 HT 0-1 Bragantino BR1
15.09.2023 Bragantino 2-0 HT 2-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
08.05.2023 Gremio Gremio 3-3 HT 1-1 Bragantino BR1
17.11.2021 Gremio Gremio 3-0 HT 3-0 Bragantino BR1
01.08.2021 Bragantino 1-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
26.02.2021 Bragantino 1-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1

Bragantino 2-2 Gremio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bragantino
2-2
AWAY Gremio
1.75 xG 0.84
47% Ball Possession 53%
23 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
234 Passes 276
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 16
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bragantino vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bragantino and Gremio couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 29% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bragantino had 47% of the ball to Gremio's 53%, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 1.75 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bragantino had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Bragantino and 1.00 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Bragantino vs Gremio?

Bragantino 2-2 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bragantino vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bragantino win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Bragantino 38%, draw 29%, Gremio 34%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bragantino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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