FK Tukums 2000 3-3 FS Jelgava — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.09
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
36%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.07
Over 2.5
59%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.6
No
43%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
7%
X/2
17%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-2.8pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.9pp
36%
Away Win
30%
+6.6pp
41%
Under 2.5
44%
-3.0pp
59%
Over 2.5
56%
+3.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.9pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Tukums 2000 EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 33%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.42/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.55
-32% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -31%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
383 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 70%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
17.5 Crosses 17.1
2.9 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Tukums 2000
3W-2D-1L
AWAY FS Jelgava
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.30 xG 1.22
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
292 Passes 214
74% Pass Accuracy 68%
20 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
26.06.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
07.05.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 2-1 HT 1-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
17.03.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-3 HT 1-2 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
11.11.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 0-0 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
26.08.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-0 HT 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
10.06.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 2-0 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Tukums 2000
3-3
AWAY FS Jelgava
2.38 xG 0.94
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
230 Passes 184
69% Pass Accuracy 62%
27 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 21
7 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FK Tukums 2000 vs FS Jelgava
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Tukums 2000 and FS Jelgava couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 3-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 41% / 23% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, FK Tukums 2000 had 53% of the ball to FS Jelgava's 47%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 2.38 to 0.94.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Tukums 2000 had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for FK Tukums 2000 and 0.83 for FS Jelgava.

What was the final score of FK Tukums 2000 vs FS Jelgava?

FK Tukums 2000 3-3 FS Jelgava in the Latvia - Virsliga on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Tukums 2000 vs FS Jelgava?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Tukums 2000 win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split FK Tukums 2000 41%, draw 23%, FS Jelgava 36%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FK Tukums 2000) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FK Tukums 2000) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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