Queretaro 0-1 Monterrey — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 15 Sep 2025

Queretaro
0-1 HT 0-1
Monterrey
📅15/09/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2025/2026

Queretaro vs Monterrey Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.13
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
52%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.53
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.53 — our 26% vs market 21.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
30%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
21%
+5.0pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.3pp
52%
Away Win
56%
-3.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.0pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Queretaro v Monterrey — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Queretaro EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterrey EU Bookmakers 61%
-1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.00/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/0.94
-10% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -7%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
291 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 81%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
18.4 Crosses 20.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5

Queretaro vs Monterrey Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Queretaro
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Monterrey
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.88 xG 1.85
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
297 Passes 456
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.02.2025 Queretaro Queretaro 2-4 HT 0-3 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
21.07.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 2-1 HT 1-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
25.01.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 1-1 HT 1-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
12.11.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 0-0 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
16.02.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 2-0 HT 2-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
22.07.2022 Queretaro Queretaro 0-3 HT 0-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK

Queretaro 0-1 Monterrey — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Queretaro
0-1
AWAY Monterrey
0.14 xG 1.54
39% Ball Possession 61%
3 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
265 Passes 484
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
4 Box Touches 18
10 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Queretaro vs Monterrey
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterrey edged past Queretaro 1-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Monterrey as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Queretaro had 39% of the ball to Monterrey's 61%, shots finished 3-15, expected goals 0.14 to 1.54 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Monterrey's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Queretaro and 2.00 for Monterrey.

What was the final score of Queretaro vs Monterrey?

Queretaro 0-1 Monterrey in the Mexico - Primera on 15/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Queretaro vs Monterrey?

Before kick-off our model rated an Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Queretaro 26%, draw 22%, Monterrey 52%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monterrey) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monterrey) ✗ BTTS Yes
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