15/10/2024
·
19:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-2
2nd Score
0-1
Andorra U21 vs Portekiz U21 Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
No
61%
Total Goals
Value flag · 0-1 at 8.06
— our 22% vs market 8.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
6%
X/2
28%
X/X
8%
2/1
3%
2/2
35%
2/X
7%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Portekiz U21 win — 68% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
12%
Home Win
5%
20%
Draw
9%
68%
Away Win
86%
48%
Under 2.5
28%
52%
Over 2.5
72%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Andorra U21 v Portekiz U21 — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Andorra U21
EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY
Portekiz U21
EU Bookmakers 91%
+8% /
+9%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-6% /
-7%
0.38/1.85
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
2.84/0.75
-28%
/
+50%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+2%
/
-37%
34%
Ball Possession
66%
6
Total Shots
15
2
Shots on Target
7
2
Corners
7
213 · 71%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
474 · 83%
3.0
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
51.0
9.0
Crosses
44.0
3.7
Yellow Cards
1.6
Andorra U21 vs Portekiz U21 Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Andorra U21
0W-0D-1L
AWAY
Portekiz U21
0.00
Avg Goals (FT)
3.00
24%
Ball Possession
76%
0
Total Shots
17
0
Shots on Target
7
0
Corners
5
4
Yellow Cards
0
The Meetings
08.09.2023
Portekiz U21
3-0
HT 1-0
Andorra U21
U21
3-0
HT 1-0
Andorra U21
U21
POST-MATCH
Andorra U21 vs Portekiz U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Portekiz U21 edged past Andorra U21 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
As we said in the preview, our model had Portekiz U21 as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Andorra U21 vs Portekiz U21?
Andorra U21 1-2 Portekiz U21 in the European U21 on 15/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Andorra U21 vs Portekiz U21?
Before kick-off our model rated an Portekiz U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Andorra U21 12%, draw 20%, Portekiz U21 68%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portekiz U21), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Portekiz U21)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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