Union Saint-Gilloise 3-1 Westerlo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 15 Dec 2024

📅15/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.43
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
23%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.4
2-3 Goals
40%
1.98
4-5 Goals
28%
2.57
6+ Goals
11%
6.04
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.74
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
17.8
X/1
9%
3.85
X/2
8%
13.55
X/X
8%
7.55
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
19.65
2/2
9%
9.41
2/X
5%
17.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.65 — our 13% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
65%
-9.1pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.0pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+7.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.3pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.9pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Westerlo EU Bookmakers 19%
-9% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -15%
1.89/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/2.04
-14% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
337 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 74%
31.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
20.4 Crosses 13.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Westerlo
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.93 xG 1.87
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
405 Passes 295
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
32 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
10.08.2024 Westerlo Westerlo 4-3 HT 3-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
10.02.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-2 HT 1-1 Westerlo Westerlo BEL
29.10.2023 Westerlo Westerlo 1-3 HT 1-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
25.02.2023 Westerlo Westerlo 4-2 HT 2-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
06.11.2022 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 1-1 HT 0-1 Westerlo Westerlo BEL
19.03.2021 Westerlo Westerlo 2-2 HT 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
3-1
AWAY Westerlo
4.28 xG 0.72
53% Ball Possession 47%
29 Total Shots 10
13 Shots on Target 4
15 Corners 6
290 Passes 239
77% Pass Accuracy 71%
47 Box Touches 15
28 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Union Saint-Gilloise vs Westerlo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise got the better of Westerlo 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Union Saint-Gilloise as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Union Saint-Gilloise had 53% of the ball to Westerlo's 47%, shots finished 29-10, expected goals 4.28 to 0.72.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Westerlo led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Union Saint-Gilloise and 2.33 for Westerlo.

What was the final score of Union Saint-Gilloise vs Westerlo?

Union Saint-Gilloise 3-1 Westerlo in the Belgium - Pro League on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Westerlo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Union Saint-Gilloise 56%, draw 21%, Westerlo 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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