NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 15 Dec 2024

📅15/12/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.24
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.42
6+ Goals
12%
13.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.42 — our 25% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.96
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
15%
4.8
X/2
11%
6.93
X/X
10%
4.63
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
13%
4.97
2/X
10%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-1.7pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+1.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-1.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+1.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.4pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +9%
1.78/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.32
+30% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +45%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
358 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 73%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
21.7 Crosses 17.5
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.06 xG 1.14
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
398 Passes 283
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.02.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-0 HT 2-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
01.09.2023 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
28.01.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-1 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
16.10.2022 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 HT 2-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
19.03.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-0 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
17.09.2021 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 HT 1-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
1-1
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
1.90 xG 1.33
63% Ball Possession 37%
20 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 6
13 Corners 5
436 Passes 236
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
43 Box Touches 22
35 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen and Sparta Rotterdam shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was NEC Nijmegen at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 63% of the ball to Sparta Rotterdam's 37%, shots finished 20-15, expected goals 1.90 to 1.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 0.83 for Sparta Rotterdam.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?

NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 43%, draw 27%, Sparta Rotterdam 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (NEC Nijmegen), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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