Union Saint-Gilloise 0-1 Mechelen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 16 Feb 2025

Union Saint-Gilloise
0-1 HT 0-1
Mechelen
📅16/02/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2024/2025

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Mechelen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.83
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
3.03
6+ Goals
13%
9.72
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.06
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.5
X/1
16%
4.21
X/2
10%
10.0
X/X
11%
5.72
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.3
2/2
7%
7.77
2/X
8%
16.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.3 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
57%
-7.5pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.6pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+2.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.0pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Union Saint-Gilloise v Mechelen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Mechelen EU Bookmakers 23%
-7% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -7%
1.91/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.94
-18% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
374 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 77%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
19.2 Crosses 15.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Mechelen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Mechelen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.17 xG 1.26
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
329 Passes 355
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.11.2024 Mechelen Mechelen 1-1 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
17.12.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 HT 0-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
19.08.2023 Mechelen Mechelen 4-0 HT 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
19.03.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 HT 1-1 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
06.08.2022 Mechelen Mechelen 3-0 HT 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
12.12.2021 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-0 HT 1-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL

Union Saint-Gilloise 0-1 Mechelen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
0-1
AWAY Mechelen
2.06 xG 1.14
54% Ball Possession 46%
19 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 5
366 Passes 299
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
34 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Union Saint-Gilloise vs Mechelen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mechelen edged past Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Union Saint-Gilloise at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Union Saint-Gilloise had 54% of the ball to Mechelen's 46%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 2.06 to 1.14 — the balance of chances actually favoured Union Saint-Gilloise.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Union Saint-Gilloise and 1.50 for Mechelen.

What was the final score of Union Saint-Gilloise vs Mechelen?

Union Saint-Gilloise 0-1 Mechelen in the Belgium - Pro League on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Mechelen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Union Saint-Gilloise 49%, draw 28%, Mechelen 23%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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