Ajax 4-0 Heracles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 16 Feb 2025

📅16/02/2025 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.33
Draw
24%
4.81
Away
19%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.51
Over 2.5
59%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.08
2-3 Goals
36%
1.96
4-5 Goals
28%
2.62
6+ Goals
15%
6.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.54
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
18.8
X/1
23%
3.92
X/2
6%
16.6
X/X
11%
7.91
2/1
7%
20.0
2/2
7%
13.35
2/X
6%
21.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
71%
-13.5pp
24%
Draw
18%
+6.5pp
19%
Away Win
12%
+7.0pp
41%
Under 2.5
36%
+4.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
64%
-4.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Heracles EU Bookmakers 15%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +7%
2.74/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/2.34
+18% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +5%
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
460 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 73%
48.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.3
23.2 Crosses 13.5
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Heracles
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
3.10 xG 1.06
68% Ball Possession 32%
22 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
545 Passes 210
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
43 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2024 Heracles Heracles 3-4 HT 2-2 Ajax Ajax HOL
27.01.2024 Heracles Heracles 2-4 HT 1-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
12.08.2023 Ajax Ajax 4-1 HT 1-1 Heracles Heracles HOL
06.02.2022 Ajax Ajax 3-0 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
30.10.2021 Heracles Heracles 0-0 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
13.02.2021 Heracles Heracles 0-2 HT 0-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
4-0
AWAY Heracles
2.62 xG 0.48
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
515 Passes 398
91% Pass Accuracy 88%
29 Box Touches 7
16 Crosses 13
POST-MATCH Ajax vs Heracles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax swept aside Heracles 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Ajax had 56% of the ball to Heracles's 44%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 2.62 to 0.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Ajax and 1.00 for Heracles.

What was the final score of Ajax vs Heracles?

Ajax 4-0 Heracles in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs Heracles?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Ajax 57%, draw 24%, Heracles 19%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
16 Feb 2025
14:15 NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City Analysis →
16:30 PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen Analysis →
16:30 Twente vs RKC Waalwijk Analysis →