NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Almere City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 16 Feb 2025

📅16/02/2025 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.57
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
21%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.72
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.09
6+ Goals
10%
10.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.99
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.45
X/1
20%
4.17
X/2
7%
10.9
X/X
8%
5.57
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
22.1
2/2
7%
8.65
2/X
7%
16.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.1 — our 11% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
59%
-1.9pp
21%
Draw
23%
-1.6pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.8pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Almere City EU Bookmakers 21%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.73/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.56
+4% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +74%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
382 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 75%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
26.9 Crosses 14.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Almere City
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.04 xG 0.85
52% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
312 Passes 282
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
25.10.2024 Almere City Almere City 1-0 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
19.05.2024 Almere City Almere City 1-4 HT 1-2 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
21.10.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-1 HT 0-1 Almere City Almere City HOL
11.01.2023 Almere City Almere City 0-4 HT 0-2 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOK
15.05.2021 Almere City Almere City 0-4 HT 0-2 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL2
02.04.2021 Almere City Almere City 2-0 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
2-2
AWAY Almere City
0.93 xG 0.70
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
259 Passes 272
72% Pass Accuracy 70%
21 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen and Almere City shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had NEC Nijmegen at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 48% of the ball to Almere City's 52%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 0.93 to 0.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NEC Nijmegen had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 0.83 for Almere City.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City?

NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Almere City in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs Almere City?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 57%, draw 21%, Almere City 21%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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