Deportivo Garcilaso 2-1 Comerciantes Unidos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 16 Feb 2025

📅16/02/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.33
Draw
25%
4.62
Away
17%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.0
Over 2.5
44%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.13
No
58%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
5%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
71%
-12.8pp
25%
Draw
18%
+7.1pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+5.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
46%
+9.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
54%
-9.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
43%
-0.8pp
58%
BTTS No
57%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos EU Bookmakers 14%
-18% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +3%
1.94/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.54/1.82
-19% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
307 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 80%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.3
26.7 Crosses 12.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.06 xG 0.57
46% Ball Possession 54%
20 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
237 Passes 296
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 8
26 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 4
25.08.2024 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 2-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
28.03.2024 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 1-2 HT 0-1 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso
2-1
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
202 Passes 232
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
POST-MATCH Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Garcilaso squeezed past Comerciantes Unidos 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Deportivo Garcilaso as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportivo Garcilaso had 48% of the ball to Comerciantes Unidos's 52%, shots finished 10-9.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Comerciantes Unidos led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 2.00 for Comerciantes Unidos.

What was the final score of Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Deportivo Garcilaso 2-1 Comerciantes Unidos in the Peru - Premier League on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Garcilaso win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Garcilaso 58%, draw 25%, Comerciantes Unidos 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Garcilaso) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo Garcilaso) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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