Fenerbahçe 3-1 Kasımpaşa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 16 Feb 2025

📅16/02/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.3
Draw
21%
5.28
Away
18%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.96
Over 2.5
61%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.43
2-3 Goals
35%
2.13
4-5 Goals
31%
2.43
6+ Goals
15%
4.84
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.5
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
20.95
X/1
19%
3.91
X/2
7%
16.7
X/X
8%
9.76
2/1
6%
17.6
2/2
5%
12.45
2/X
6%
23.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
72%
-10.9pp
21%
Draw
16%
+5.6pp
18%
Away Win
12%
+5.4pp
39%
Under 2.5
30%
+9.1pp
61%
Over 2.5
70%
-9.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.4pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 16%
-1% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +27%
2.40/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.84
+19% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +65% / +17%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
437 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 73%
35.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
23.4 Crosses 16.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fenerbahçe
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Kasımpaşa
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
3.22 xG 0.53
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
406 Passes 220
80% Pass Accuracy 67%
33 Box Touches 12
21 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
09.01.2025 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 0-3 HT 0-3 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TÜK
15.09.2024 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 0-2 HT 0-2 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
24.02.2024 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-1 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
08.10.2023 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 0-2 HT 0-2 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
29.01.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 5-1 HT 2-1 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
15.08.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 0-6 HT 0-3 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fenerbahçe
3-1
AWAY Kasımpaşa
1.62 xG 1.07
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 3
378 Passes 486
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 15
11 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe beat Kasımpaşa 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fenerbahçe as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Fenerbahçe had 45% of the ball to Kasımpaşa's 55%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.62 to 1.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fenerbahçe had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.33 for Kasımpaşa.

What was the final score of Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?

Fenerbahçe 3-1 Kasımpaşa in the Turkey - Super League on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Fenerbahçe 61%, draw 21%, Kasımpaşa 18%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fenerbahçe), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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