Progreso vs Nacional de Football Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Progreso v Nacional de Football — Team-Based Signals
Progreso vs Nacional de Football Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Progreso
URU
1-3
HT 0-2
Nacional de Football
URU
0-1
HT 0-1
Nacional de Football
URU
2-1
HT 2-0
Progreso
URU
Progreso 1-5 Nacional de Football — Actual Match Statistics
Nacional de Football cruised past Progreso 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Nacional de Football as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Progreso had 38% of the ball to Nacional de Football's 62%, shots finished 10-21.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Progreso and 1.50 for Nacional de Football.
What was the final score of Progreso vs Nacional de Football?
Progreso 1-5 Nacional de Football in the Uruguay - Premier League on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Progreso vs Nacional de Football?
Before kick-off our model rated an Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Progreso 23%, draw 23%, Nacional de Football 55%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional de Football) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.