Eastleigh 1-4 Rochdale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
27%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.21
Over 2.5
49%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.55
No
51%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.36
2-3 Goals
40%
1.88
4-5 Goals
23%
2.96
6+ Goals
11%
8.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.77
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
13.25
X/1
13%
4.8
X/2
10%
6.91
X/X
8%
5.5
2/1
7%
22.3
2/2
10%
4.58
2/X
7%
13.45
Value flag · 1/X at 13.25 — our 10% vs market 4.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+2.0pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.1pp
27%
Away Win
30%
-3.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.4pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Eastleigh EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Rochdale EU Bookmakers 33%
+1% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.78/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.75
+15% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -18%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
324 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Eastleigh
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Rochdale
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
42% Ball Possession 58%
4 Total Shots 11
0 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 2
5 Yellow Cards 2
19.08.2023 Rochdale Rochdale 2-0 HT 2-0 Eastleigh Eastleigh İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Eastleigh
1-4
AWAY Rochdale
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Eastleigh vs Rochdale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rochdale cruised past Eastleigh 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Eastleigh at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Eastleigh had 39% of the ball to Rochdale's 61%, shots finished 7-11.

What was the final score of Eastleigh vs Rochdale?

Eastleigh 1-4 Rochdale in the England - National League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Eastleigh vs Rochdale?

Before kick-off our model rated a Eastleigh win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Eastleigh 48%, draw 25%, Rochdale 27%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Eastleigh) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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