Ebbsfleet United 4-2 Gateshead — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
41%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.29
Over 2.5
45%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.49
No
53%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.76
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
20%
2.83
6+ Goals
11%
7.79
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.76 — our 30% vs market 16.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.1
1/2
7%
22.7
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
13%
6.55
X/2
13%
5.2
X/X
11%
5.56
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
21%
2.98
2/X
8%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
33%
-0.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.2pp
41%
Away Win
42%
-0.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
40%
+15.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
60%
-15.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
63%
-16.4pp
53%
BTTS No
37%
+16.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ebbsfleet United EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Gateshead EU Bookmakers 46%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.24/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.01/1.42
-11% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -10%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
296 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ebbsfleet United
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Gateshead
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
19.08.2023 Gateshead Gateshead 4-1 HT 1-1 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United İBSL
06.04.2019 Gateshead Gateshead 1-1 HT 1-0 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United İBSL
08.09.2018 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United 0-1 HT 0-1 Gateshead Gateshead İBSL
24.04.2018 Gateshead Gateshead 2-5 HT 1-1 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United İBSL
26.08.2017 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United 0-0 HT 0-0 Gateshead Gateshead İBSL
20.04.2013 Gateshead Gateshead 2-0 HT 0-0 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ebbsfleet United
4-2
AWAY Gateshead
62% Ball Possession 38%
20 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ebbsfleet United vs Gateshead
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ebbsfleet United saw off Gateshead 4-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Gateshead at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ebbsfleet United had 62% of the ball to Gateshead's 38%, shots finished 20-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gateshead led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Ebbsfleet United and 1.67 for Gateshead.

What was the final score of Ebbsfleet United vs Gateshead?

Ebbsfleet United 4-2 Gateshead in the England - National League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ebbsfleet United vs Gateshead?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gateshead win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Ebbsfleet United 33%, draw 26%, Gateshead 41%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gateshead) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İBSL More England - National League
16 Mar 2024
15:30 Oldham Athletic vs Chesterfield Analysis →
18:00 Dagenham & Redbridge vs Maidenhead United Analysis →
18:00 Bromley vs Kidderminster Harriers Analysis →
18:00 Eastleigh vs Rochdale Analysis →
18:00 Boreham Wood vs Altrincham Analysis →
18:00 Hartlepool United vs Southend United Analysis →