York City 1-0 Aldershot Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.5
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
46%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.15
Over 2.5
57%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.61
No
41%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.2
2-3 Goals
42%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
3.02
6+ Goals
11%
9.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.87
1/2
7%
21.85
1/X
7%
14.3
X/1
12%
8.35
X/2
14%
4.31
X/X
9%
5.55
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.36
2/X
8%
13.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
25%
+5.9pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
46%
Away Win
51%
-5.7pp
43%
Under 2.5
43%
-0.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
57%
+0.2pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.9pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME York City EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Aldershot Town EU Bookmakers 56%
-3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.31/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.91
+3% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -39%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
290 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME York City
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Aldershot Town
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.08.2023 Aldershot Town Aldershot Town 1-1 HT 1-0 York City York City İBSL
22.04.2023 York City York City 2-2 HT 0-1 Aldershot Town Aldershot Town İBSL
22.10.2022 Aldershot Town Aldershot Town 2-1 HT 1-0 York City York City İBSL
28.01.2017 Aldershot Town Aldershot Town 0-0 HT 0-0 York City York City İBSL
01.10.2016 York City York City 0-1 HT 0-1 Aldershot Town Aldershot Town İBSL
19.01.2013 York City York City 0-0 HT 0-0 Aldershot Town Aldershot Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME York City
1-0
AWAY Aldershot Town
47% Ball Possession 53%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
13 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH York City vs Aldershot Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

York City edged past Aldershot Town 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Aldershot Town at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, York City had 47% of the ball to Aldershot Town's 53%, shots finished 17-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aldershot Town led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for York City and 1.00 for Aldershot Town.

What was the final score of York City vs Aldershot Town?

York City 1-0 Aldershot Town in the England - National League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for York City vs Aldershot Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aldershot Town win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split York City 31%, draw 24%, Aldershot Town 46%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aldershot Town) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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