Ciudad Real 2-1 UCAM Murcia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.99
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
36%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.48
Over 2.5
46%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
30%
+5.9pp
28%
Draw
31%
-2.9pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-3.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
64%
-9.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
36%
+9.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+3.8pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ciudad Real EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY UCAM Murcia EU Bookmakers 43%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -21%
0.77/0.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.20
-25% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / -21%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
301 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ciudad Real
0W-1D-0L
AWAY UCAM Murcia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
6 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
5 Yellow Cards 1
05.11.2023 UCAM Murcia UCAM Murcia 1-1 HT 0-0 Ciudad Real Ciudad Real İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ciudad Real
2-1
AWAY UCAM Murcia
45% Ball Possession 55%
17 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ciudad Real vs UCAM Murcia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ciudad Real edged past UCAM Murcia 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 36% — and on the day Ciudad Real made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Ciudad Real had 45% of the ball to UCAM Murcia's 55%, shots finished 17-12.

What was the final score of Ciudad Real vs UCAM Murcia?

Ciudad Real 2-1 UCAM Murcia in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ciudad Real vs UCAM Murcia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ciudad Real win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Ciudad Real 36%, draw 28%, UCAM Murcia 36%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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