Ourense CF 4-1 Real Valladolid II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
22%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.67
Over 2.5
48%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.06
No
51%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
11%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
53%
-0.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+0.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-4.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+4.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.4pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ourense CF EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Valladolid II EU Bookmakers 24%
+23% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +8%
1.74/0.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.50
+12% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
438 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 185 · 65%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ourense CF
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Real Valladolid II
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
05.11.2023 Real Valladolid II Real Valladolid II 0-1 HT 0-1 Ourense CF Ourense CF İS4
07.05.2023 Real Valladolid II Real Valladolid II 2-2 HT 2-1 Ourense CF Ourense CF İS4
08.01.2023 Ourense CF Ourense CF 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Valladolid II Real Valladolid II İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ourense CF
4-1
AWAY Real Valladolid II
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ourense CF vs Real Valladolid II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ourense CF swept aside Real Valladolid II 4-1. Half-time: 4-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ourense CF as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Ourense CF had 35% of the ball to Real Valladolid II's 65%, shots finished 9-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ourense CF had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ourense CF and 0.67 for Real Valladolid II.

What was the final score of Ourense CF vs Real Valladolid II?

Ourense CF 4-1 Real Valladolid II in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ourense CF vs Real Valladolid II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ourense CF win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Ourense CF 52%, draw 26%, Real Valladolid II 22%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ourense CF) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ourense CF) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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