Lierse Kempenzonen 3-2 RFC Liege — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - 1st Division, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
44%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.23
Over 2.5
49%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.5
No
53%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.67
2-3 Goals
35%
1.91
4-5 Goals
24%
2.86
6+ Goals
12%
7.99
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.67 — our 29% vs market 16.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
23%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+0.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.1pp
44%
Away Win
46%
-1.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
62%
-15.4pp
53%
BTTS No
38%
+15.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lierse Kempenzonen EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY RFC Liege EU Bookmakers 49%
-5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.23/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.99/1.33
+22% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -8%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
312 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 78%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.5
19.7 Crosses 26.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lierse Kempenzonen
1W-0D-0L
AWAY RFC Liege
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.36 xG 1.99
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
372 Passes 208
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
27 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 19
5 Yellow Cards 5
12.11.2023 RFC Liege RFC Liege 2-4 HT 2-1 Lierse Kempenzonen Lierse Kempenzonen BEL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lierse Kempenzonen
3-2
AWAY RFC Liege
1.68 xG 2.29
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
360 Passes 295
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 29
19 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lierse Kempenzonen vs RFC Liege
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lierse Kempenzonen squeezed past RFC Liege 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was RFC Liege at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Lierse Kempenzonen had 54% of the ball to RFC Liege's 46%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 1.68 to 2.29 — on chances, RFC Liege could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Lierse Kempenzonen vs RFC Liege?

Lierse Kempenzonen 3-2 RFC Liege in the Belgium - 1st Division on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lierse Kempenzonen vs RFC Liege?

Before kick-off our model rated an RFC Liege win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Lierse Kempenzonen 31%, draw 25%, RFC Liege 44%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (RFC Liege) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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