Cardiff MU 0-1 Bala Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.46
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
43%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.9
Over 2.5
57%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.75
No
39%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.34
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.54
6+ Goals
13%
13.95
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.54 — our 28% vs market 22.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
25%
+1.6pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.6pp
43%
Away Win
48%
-5.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
49%
-5.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
51%
+5.9pp
61%
BTTS Yes
53%
+7.5pp
39%
BTTS No
47%
-7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cardiff MU EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Bala Town EU Bookmakers 52%
+9% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -10%
1.02/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.32
-11% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -16%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
248 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cardiff MU
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Bala Town
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
6 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.02.2024 Bala Town Bala Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
16.12.2023 Bala Town Bala Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
19.08.2023 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 0-0 HT 0-0 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
22.04.2023 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 2-1 HT 2-0 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
18.03.2023 Bala Town Bala Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
26.11.2022 Bala Town Bala Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GALLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cardiff MU
0-1
AWAY Bala Town
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cardiff MU vs Bala Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bala Town edged past Cardiff MU 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bala Town as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cardiff MU had 52% of the ball to Bala Town's 48%, shots finished 9-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cardiff MU had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Cardiff MU and 0.67 for Bala Town.

What was the final score of Cardiff MU vs Bala Town?

Cardiff MU 0-1 Bala Town in the Wales - Premier League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cardiff MU vs Bala Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bala Town win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Cardiff MU 27%, draw 30%, Bala Town 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bala Town) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bala Town) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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