Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arsenal v Chelsea — Team-Based Signals
Arsenal vs Chelsea Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 1-0
Arsenal
İNP
3-1
HT 3-0
Chelsea
İNP
0-1
HT 0-0
Arsenal
İNP
4-0
HT 2-0
Chelsea
FLO
Arsenal 1-0 Chelsea — Actual Match Statistics
Arsenal nicked a narrow win over Chelsea 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Arsenal had 41% of the ball to Chelsea's 59%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 0.71 to 0.36.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Arsenal and 0.67 for Chelsea.
What was the final score of Arsenal vs Chelsea?
Arsenal 1-0 Chelsea in the England - Premier League on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Chelsea?
Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 48%, draw 26%, Chelsea 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.