Pisa 3-1 Mantova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 16 Mar 2025

Pisa
3-1 HT 1-1
Mantova
📅16/03/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.99
No
56%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.0
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.64
6+ Goals
10%
15.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 28% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.96
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.9
X/1
23%
3.91
X/2
10%
11.4
X/X
13%
5.07
2/1
6%
24.7
2/2
9%
9.93
2/X
6%
18.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
60%
-7.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.8pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+6.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
46%
-2.7pp
56%
BTTS No
54%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pisa EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Mantova EU Bookmakers 20%
-17% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.44/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.67
-15% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -18%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
380 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 75%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
25.7 Crosses 19.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pisa
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Mantova
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
1.79 xG 0.90
34% Ball Possession 66%
15 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
217 Passes 517
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
30 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 1
07.12.2024 Mantova Mantova 2-3 HT 1-2 Pisa Pisa İTB
21.04.2009 Pisa Pisa 1-1 HT 1-0 Mantova Mantova İTB
14.11.2008 Mantova Mantova 2-1 HT 1-1 Pisa Pisa İTB
16.02.2008 Pisa Pisa 1-1 HT 1-1 Mantova Mantova İTB
22.09.2007 Mantova Mantova 0-1 HT 0-1 Pisa Pisa İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pisa
3-1
AWAY Mantova
1.79 xG 1.04
45% Ball Possession 55%
21 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 1
219 Passes 331
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
47 Box Touches 13
34 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pisa vs Mantova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pisa beat Mantova 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Pisa as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pisa had 45% of the ball to Mantova's 55%, shots finished 21-7, expected goals 1.79 to 1.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Pisa had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Pisa and 1.20 for Mantova.

What was the final score of Pisa vs Mantova?

Pisa 3-1 Mantova in the Italy - Serie B on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pisa vs Mantova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pisa win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Pisa 52%, draw 25%, Mantova 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pisa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pisa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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