Caldiero Terme 2-0 Novara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.8
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
41%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.54
Over 2.5
47%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.26
2-3 Goals
37%
1.73
4-5 Goals
22%
4.77
6+ Goals
9%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
22%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-2.1pp
29%
Draw
31%
-1.7pp
41%
Away Win
37%
+3.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
61%
-7.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
39%
+7.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+3.0pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caldiero Terme EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Novara EU Bookmakers 40%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -5%
1.32/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.35
+20% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -19%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
269 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caldiero Terme
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Novara
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.11.2024 Novara Novara 3-1 HT 1-0 Caldiero Terme İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caldiero Terme
2-0
AWAY Novara
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 7
0 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Caldiero Terme vs Novara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caldiero Terme got the better of Novara 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Novara at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Caldiero Terme had 43% of the ball to Novara's 57%, shots finished 14-19.

What was the final score of Caldiero Terme vs Novara?

Caldiero Terme 2-0 Novara in the Italy - Serie C on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caldiero Terme vs Novara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Novara win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Caldiero Terme 30%, draw 29%, Novara 41%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Novara) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Novara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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