San Diego 1-1 Columbus Crew — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.91
Over 2.5
43%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.23
2-3 Goals
46%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
3.3
6+ Goals
8%
12.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.23 — our 28% vs market 24.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.3
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
10%
13.15
X/1
15%
5.21
X/2
12%
6.13
X/X
10%
4.81
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
13%
4.22
2/X
11%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-2.2pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.9pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-1.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.5pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Diego EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Columbus Crew EU Bookmakers 37%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +17%
0.97/0.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.36
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
342 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 79%
36.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
35.0 Crosses 13.7
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Diego
1-1
AWAY Columbus Crew
2.07 xG 1.03
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 1
474 Passes 443
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
28 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH San Diego vs Columbus Crew
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Diego and Columbus Crew shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 30% / 31% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, San Diego had 52% of the ball to Columbus Crew's 48%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 2.07 to 1.03.

What was the final score of San Diego vs Columbus Crew?

San Diego 1-1 Columbus Crew in the USA - Major League on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Diego vs Columbus Crew?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Diego win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split San Diego 38%, draw 30%, Columbus Crew 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (San Diego) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (San Diego) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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