Bayelsa United 1-0 Lobi Stars — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nigeria NPFL, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.37
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
15%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.54
Over 2.5
39%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
3.05
No
52%
1.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
25%
X/2
6%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
4%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
69%
-9.7pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.8pp
14%
Away Win
10%
+4.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
61%
-0.1pp
39%
Over 2.5
39%
+0.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
29%
+18.9pp
52%
BTTS No
71%
-18.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayelsa United EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Lobi Stars EU Bookmakers 12%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -9%
1.44/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/1.70
-11% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -9%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
390 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayelsa United
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Lobi Stars
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
28.10.2024 Lobi Stars Lobi Stars 2-1 HT 1-1 Bayelsa United Bayelsa United NIJ
24.03.2024 Lobi Stars Lobi Stars 1-1 HT 0-0 Bayelsa United Bayelsa United NIJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayelsa United
1-0
AWAY Lobi Stars
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Bayelsa United vs Lobi Stars
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayelsa United edged past Lobi Stars 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bayelsa United as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Bayelsa United had 52% of the ball to Lobi Stars's 48%, shots finished 18-7.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Lobi Stars led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Bayelsa United and 1.50 for Lobi Stars.

What was the final score of Bayelsa United vs Lobi Stars?

Bayelsa United 1-0 Lobi Stars in the Nigeria NPFL on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayelsa United vs Lobi Stars?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayelsa United win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Bayelsa United 59%, draw 26%, Lobi Stars 14%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayelsa United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayelsa United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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