Rostov 0-1 Krasnodar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 16 Mar 2025

Rostov
0-1 HT 0-0
Krasnodar
📅16/03/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2024/2025

Rostov vs Krasnodar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.68
No
45%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.38
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.57
6+ Goals
13%
13.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.57 — our 25% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.27
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
31.0
1/X
8%
12.65
X/1
17%
5.25
X/2
11%
6.34
X/X
12%
4.62
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
16%
4.38
2/X
8%
13.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 31.0 — our 7% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+2.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.7pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rostov v Krasnodar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rostov EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 34%
+9% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +11%
1.64/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.32
+21% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / +16%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
304 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 77%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
21.9 Crosses 14.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Rostov vs Krasnodar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rostov
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Krasnodar
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.49 xG 1.86
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
299 Passes 281
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
14.09.2024 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-0 HT 1-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
08.03.2024 Rostov Rostov 2-1 HT 1-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
07.10.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 3-2 HT 0-2 Rostov Rostov RUS
21.05.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 3-0 HT 3-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
06.04.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-1 HT 1-0 Rostov Rostov RUSK
09.10.2022 Rostov Rostov 3-2 HT 0-2 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS

Rostov 0-1 Krasnodar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rostov
0-1
AWAY Krasnodar
0.86 xG 0.77
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 6
1 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 2
188 Passes 259
63% Pass Accuracy 71%
27 Box Touches 9
10 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Rostov vs Krasnodar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krasnodar nicked a narrow win over Rostov 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Krasnodar found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rostov had 45% of the ball to Krasnodar's 55%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 0.86 to 0.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Krasnodar led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Rostov and 2.00 for Krasnodar.

What was the final score of Rostov vs Krasnodar?

Rostov 0-1 Krasnodar in the Russia - Premier League on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rostov vs Krasnodar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rostov win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Rostov 38%, draw 28%, Krasnodar 34%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rostov) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
RUS More Russia - Premier League
16 Mar 2025
13:00 Akron vs CSKA Moskova Analysis →
15:15 Rubin Kazan vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod Analysis →
19:45 Spartak Moskova vs Zenit St. Petersburg Analysis →