Celje 3-2 Nafta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 16 Mar 2025

Celje
3-2 HT 1-0
Nafta
📅16/03/2025 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.43
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.21
Over 2.5
56%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.1
2-3 Goals
43%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
2.82
6+ Goals
12%
8.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
26%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
12%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
66%
-6.1pp
21%
Draw
20%
+0.9pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.5pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celje EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Nafta EU Bookmakers 18%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
2.26/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.22/1.12
+15% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -80% / +56%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
380 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celje
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Nafta
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
01.12.2024 Nafta Nafta 0-0 HT 0-0 Celje Celje SLVN
15.09.2024 Celje Celje 3-1 HT 1-0 Nafta Nafta SLVN
22.11.2023 Nafta Nafta 1-1 HT 0-1 Celje Celje SLVNK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celje
3-2
AWAY Nafta
66% Ball Possession 34%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Celje vs Nafta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celje nicked a narrow win over Nafta 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Celje as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Celje had 66% of the ball to Nafta's 34%, shots finished 11-10.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Celje had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Celje and 0.67 for Nafta.

What was the final score of Celje vs Nafta?

Celje 3-2 Nafta in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celje vs Nafta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celje win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Celje 59%, draw 21%, Nafta 20%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celje), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Celje) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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