Miami FC 1-3 Indy Eleven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
4.48
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
50%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.3
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
25%
3.24
6+ Goals
8%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 28% vs market 23.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
12%
1/X
11%
X/1
8%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
31%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
19%
+3.1pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.6pp
50%
Away Win
58%
-7.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.7pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Miami FC EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Indy Eleven EU Bookmakers 62%
-7% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -70% / -70%
1.08/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.34/2.11
-7% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +27%
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
276 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 78%
12.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
11.7 Crosses 14.0
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Miami FC
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Indy Eleven
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.85 xG 1.90
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
338 Passes 384
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 3
29.09.2024 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 4-0 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
13.05.2024 Miami FC Miami FC 1-3 HT 0-1 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
03.09.2023 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 1-0 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
13.08.2023 Miami FC Miami FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
03.07.2022 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 0-1 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
09.06.2022 Miami FC Miami FC 1-1 HT 1-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Miami FC
1-3
AWAY Indy Eleven
0.85 xG 1.57
59% Ball Possession 41%
8 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 5
396 Passes 251
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Miami FC vs Indy Eleven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Indy Eleven saw off Miami FC 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Indy Eleven as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Miami FC had 59% of the ball to Indy Eleven's 41%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.85 to 1.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Indy Eleven led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Miami FC and 1.67 for Indy Eleven.

What was the final score of Miami FC vs Indy Eleven?

Miami FC 1-3 Indy Eleven in the USL Championship on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Miami FC vs Indy Eleven?

Before kick-off our model rated an Indy Eleven win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Miami FC 22%, draw 28%, Indy Eleven 50%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Indy Eleven), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Indy Eleven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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