North Carolina 1-2 Loudoun United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 16 Mar 2025

North Carolina
1-2 HT 1-1
Loudoun United
📅16/03/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
USL Championship – 2025

North Carolina vs Loudoun United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.11
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
24%
3.4
6+ Goals
9%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 28% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
-0.1pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.6pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+3.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.4pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

North Carolina v Loudoun United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME North Carolina EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Loudoun United EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -12%
1.37/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.53
-16% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
370 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 80%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
13.9 Crosses 16.3
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4

North Carolina vs Loudoun United Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME North Carolina
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Loudoun United
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
1.82 xG 1.05
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
337 Passes 380
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.05.2024 North Carolina North Carolina 2-0 HT 1-0 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP
16.03.2024 Loudoun United Loudoun United 3-1 HT 1-1 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
06.04.2023 Loudoun United Loudoun United 2-1 HT 1-0 North Carolina North Carolina ABDK
01.09.2019 Loudoun United Loudoun United 4-0 HT 2-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
18.07.2019 North Carolina North Carolina 3-0 HT 1-0 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP

North Carolina 1-2 Loudoun United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME North Carolina
1-2
AWAY Loudoun United
1.22 xG 1.55
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 2
364 Passes 302
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH North Carolina vs Loudoun United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Loudoun United edged past North Carolina 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was North Carolina at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, North Carolina had 53% of the ball to Loudoun United's 47%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.22 to 1.55.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Loudoun United led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for North Carolina and 1.80 for Loudoun United.

What was the final score of North Carolina vs Loudoun United?

North Carolina 1-2 Loudoun United in the USL Championship on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for North Carolina vs Loudoun United?

Before kick-off our model rated a North Carolina win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split North Carolina 45%, draw 23%, Loudoun United 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (North Carolina) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (North Carolina) ✓ Over 2.5
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