FC Tulsa 1-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 16 Mar 2025

FC Tulsa
1-0 HT 0-0
Tampa Bay Rowdies
📅16/03/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
USL Championship – 2025

FC Tulsa vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.32
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
46%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.82
No
57%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.85
2-3 Goals
36%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.67
6+ Goals
11%
16.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.85 — our 33% vs market 27.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
27%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
27%
+4.8pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.4pp
46%
Away Win
47%
-1.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.4pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

FC Tulsa v Tampa Bay Rowdies — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tulsa EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 51%
-7% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.42/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/1.45
-1% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +22%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
341 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 79%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
14.6 Crosses 19.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.9

FC Tulsa vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tulsa
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 3.33
0.69 xG 3.70
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 8
360 Passes 319
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Box Touches 34
12 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.05.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 5-0 HT 4-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
19.08.2023 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 1-2 HT 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
30.07.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-0 HT 0-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
02.06.2022 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 1-1 HT 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
17.04.2022 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-1 HT 2-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
07.11.2021 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 6-2 HT 1-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP

FC Tulsa 1-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tulsa
1-0
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
0.96 xG 0.38
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
189 Passes 338
66% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH FC Tulsa vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tulsa nicked a narrow win over Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Tampa Bay Rowdies at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, FC Tulsa had 40% of the ball to Tampa Bay Rowdies's 60%, shots finished 8-9, expected goals 0.96 to 0.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tampa Bay Rowdies led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for FC Tulsa and 3.33 for Tampa Bay Rowdies.

What was the final score of FC Tulsa vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

FC Tulsa 1-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tulsa vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split FC Tulsa 31%, draw 23%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 46%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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