El Paso Locomotive 4-4 Phoenix Rising — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.53
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
22%
4.15
6+ Goals
10%
21.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
11%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
43%
-6.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.1pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+5.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.6pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 34%
-11% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -5%
1.21/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.69
-11% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -23%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
358 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 74%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
18.6 Crosses 17.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Paso Locomotive
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Phoenix Rising
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.14 xG 1.47
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
338 Passes 379
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
20.07.2024 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 2-0 HT 1-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
16.06.2024 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 1-1 HT 1-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
24.09.2023 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 1-1 HT 0-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
13.08.2023 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 5-0 HT 2-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
28.08.2022 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 3-1 HT 2-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
12.06.2022 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 0-1 HT 0-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Paso Locomotive
4-4
AWAY Phoenix Rising
1.37 xG 0.96
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 7
222 Passes 304
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 22
5 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH El Paso Locomotive vs Phoenix Rising
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Paso Locomotive and Phoenix Rising shared the points in a 4-4 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, El Paso Locomotive had 44% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 56%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 1.37 to 0.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for El Paso Locomotive and 1.67 for Phoenix Rising.

What was the final score of El Paso Locomotive vs Phoenix Rising?

El Paso Locomotive 4-4 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Paso Locomotive vs Phoenix Rising?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Paso Locomotive win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split El Paso Locomotive 37%, draw 28%, Phoenix Rising 35%. The final score 4-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (El Paso Locomotive) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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