Orange County SC 2-2 Lexington — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.71
Over 2.5
51%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2.74
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
24%
3.81
6+ Goals
13%
17.45
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.81 — our 24% vs market 19.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
41%
+4.2pp
27%
Draw
30%
-2.5pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
55%
-5.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
45%
+5.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.2pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lexington EU Bookmakers 33%
+1% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+6% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
286 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 79%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
15.5 Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orange County SC
2-2
AWAY Lexington
2.00 xG 1.03
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 9
445 Passes 363
87% Pass Accuracy 87%
22 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Orange County SC vs Lexington
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orange County SC and Lexington shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Orange County SC at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Orange County SC had 55% of the ball to Lexington's 45%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 2.00 to 1.03.

What was the final score of Orange County SC vs Lexington?

Orange County SC 2-2 Lexington in the USL Championship on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orange County SC vs Lexington?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orange County SC win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Orange County SC 45%, draw 27%, Lexington 28%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Orange County SC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Orange County SC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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