Portsmouth vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities
Portsmouth v Derby County — Team-Based Signals
Portsmouth vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Portsmouth 0-1 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics
Derby County squeezed past Portsmouth 1-0 on the road.
Our pre-match lean was Portsmouth at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
The goals picture was genuinely open: 46% for over 2.5, 51% on both teams scoring.
Under the surface, possession split 67% to 33% in Portsmouth's favour, shots finished 27-10, expected goals 1.82 to 1.18 — by the quality of chances, Portsmouth deserved more.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derby County led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.17 a game for Portsmouth against 1.83 for Derby County.
Portsmouth vs Derby County Result & Final Score
Portsmouth 0 - 1 Derby County in the England - Championship on 16/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Portsmouth vs Derby County Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Portsmouth win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Portsmouth 44%, draw 29%, Derby County 27%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Portsmouth), BTTS Yes went the other way.