Portsmouth vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Portsmouth v Derby County — Team-Based Signals
Portsmouth vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-0
Portsmouth
İN1
1-1
HT 0-1
Portsmouth
İN1
0-0
HT 0-0
Derby County
İN1
2-1
HT 0-0
Derby County
İNLK
Portsmouth 2-2 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics
Portsmouth and Derby County shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-0.
Our pre-match lean was Portsmouth at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Portsmouth had 60% of the ball to Derby County's 40%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.82 to 1.61.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Portsmouth and 1.50 for Derby County.
What was the final score of Portsmouth vs Derby County?
Portsmouth 2-2 Derby County in the England - Championship on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Portsmouth vs Derby County?
Before kick-off our model rated a Portsmouth win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Portsmouth 44%, draw 31%, Derby County 25%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.