Kataller Toyama 1-1 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 16 Apr 2025

📅16/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.32
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
41%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
1.62
Over
47%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2.47
2-3
39%
1.74
4-5
23%
4.4
6+
10%
23.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
27%
+7.7pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.9pp
41%
Away Win
45%
-4.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
58%
-5.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
42%
+5.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.4pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kataller Toyama EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 49%
+23% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
2.50/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/0.41
+106% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / +150%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
300 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kataller Toyama
1-1
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kataller Toyama vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kataller Toyama and Nagoya Grampus couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Nagoya Grampus at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Kataller Toyama had 50% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 50%, shots finished 18-13.

What was the final score of Kataller Toyama vs Nagoya Grampus?

Kataller Toyama 1-1 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - League Cup on 16/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kataller Toyama vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nagoya Grampus win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Kataller Toyama 34%, draw 25%, Nagoya Grampus 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) ✓ Under 2.5
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