Tochigi SC 1-2 Avispa Fukuoka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 16 Apr 2025

📅16/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.91
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
49%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.56
Over
45%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.51
No
49%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2-3
50%
4-5
13%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
17%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
24%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
14%
+8.7pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.2pp
49%
Away Win
62%
-12.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
60%
-5.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
40%
+5.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
36%
+15.7pp
49%
BTTS No
64%
-15.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tochigi SC EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 66%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
223 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tochigi SC
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
02.08.2023 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC 2-4 HT 1-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JPK
30.09.2020 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 HT 0-0 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC JAP2
23.08.2020 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC 0-1 HT 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP2
14.09.2019 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC 0-1 HT 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP2
18.10.2015 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 4-2 HT 1-0 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC JAP2
09.05.2015 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC 0-0 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tochigi SC
1-2
AWAY Avispa Fukuoka
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tochigi SC vs Avispa Fukuoka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avispa Fukuoka edged past Tochigi SC 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Avispa Fukuoka as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tochigi SC had 49% of the ball to Avispa Fukuoka's 51%, shots finished 10-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avispa Fukuoka led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Tochigi SC and 1.83 for Avispa Fukuoka.

What was the final score of Tochigi SC vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Tochigi SC 1-2 Avispa Fukuoka in the Japan - League Cup on 16/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tochigi SC vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Avispa Fukuoka win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Tochigi SC 23%, draw 28%, Avispa Fukuoka 49%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avispa Fukuoka), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Avispa Fukuoka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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