Omiya Ardija 1-3 FC Tokyo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 16 Apr 2025

📅16/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
3.32
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
34%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
1.74
Over
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2.77
2-3
39%
1.74
4-5
23%
3.87
6+
10%
17.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
27%
+12.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
34%
Away Win
46%
-11.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.2pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Omiya Ardija EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 49%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
0.20/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/0.93
-85% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +35%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
331 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Omiya Ardija
2W-0D-4L
AWAY FC Tokyo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
394 Passes 249
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.08.2017 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 1-2 HT 0-1 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
10.05.2017 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 4-3 HT 3-2 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JLK
04.03.2017 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-0 HT 0-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP
03.11.2016 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 0-1 HT 0-1 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
27.02.2016 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 0-1 HT 0-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP
18.10.2014 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Omiya Ardija
1-3
AWAY FC Tokyo
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 22
6 Shots on Target 9
6 Corners 14
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Omiya Ardija vs FC Tokyo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tokyo beat Omiya Ardija 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; FC Tokyo found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Omiya Ardija had 39% of the ball to FC Tokyo's 61%, shots finished 12-22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Tokyo led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Omiya Ardija and 1.50 for FC Tokyo.

What was the final score of Omiya Ardija vs FC Tokyo?

Omiya Ardija 1-3 FC Tokyo in the Japan - League Cup on 16/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Omiya Ardija vs FC Tokyo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Omiya Ardija win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Omiya Ardija 39%, draw 27%, FC Tokyo 34%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Omiya Ardija), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Omiya Ardija) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JLK More Japan - League Cup
16 Apr 2025
13:00 Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Yokohama FC Analysis →
13:00 Mito HollyHock vs Gamba Osaka Analysis →
13:00 Tochigi SC vs Avispa Fukuoka Analysis →
13:00 Kataller Toyama vs Nagoya Grampus Analysis →
13:00 Blaublitz Akita vs Tokyo Verdy Analysis →
13:00 Fukushima United vs Kashiwa Reysol Analysis →