Mito HollyHock 0-1 Gamba Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 16 Apr 2025

📅16/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
4.04
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
43%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
1.82
Over
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
29%
3.06
2-3
43%
1.75
4-5
20%
3.53
6+
8%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.06 — our 29% vs market 26.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
20%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
22%
+8.5pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.8pp
43%
Away Win
54%
-10.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.9pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mito HollyHock EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 57%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +103% / -21%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
254 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mito HollyHock
0-1
AWAY Gamba Osaka
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 28
1 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mito HollyHock vs Gamba Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gamba Osaka nicked a narrow win over Mito HollyHock 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Gamba Osaka as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Mito HollyHock had 41% of the ball to Gamba Osaka's 59%, shots finished 15-28.

What was the final score of Mito HollyHock vs Gamba Osaka?

Mito HollyHock 0-1 Gamba Osaka in the Japan - League Cup on 16/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mito HollyHock vs Gamba Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gamba Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Mito HollyHock 30%, draw 27%, Gamba Osaka 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gamba Osaka), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gamba Osaka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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