Cruzeiro 1-2 Universidad Catolica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 16 Apr 2026

Cruzeiro
1-2 HT 0-1
Universidad Catolica
📅16/04/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Copa Libertadores – 2026

Cruzeiro vs Universidad Catolica Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.49
Draw
20%
3.94
Away
14%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.86
Over 2.5
54%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.03
No
50%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.05
2-3 Goals
43%
1.72
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
23%
3.42
6+ Goals
10%
13.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.42 — our 23% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.85
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
5%
16.75
X/1
19%
3.8
X/2
3%
12.2
X/X
10%
5.4
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
23.95
2/2
7%
10.7
2/X
5%
19.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.95 — our 10% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
63%
+3.1pp
20%
Draw
22%
-2.6pp
14%
Away Win
15%
-0.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
50%
-4.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
50%
+4.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
45%
+5.2pp
50%
BTTS No
55%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cruzeiro v Universidad Catolica — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Universidad Catolica EU Bookmakers 18%
-4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -10%
1.52/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.59
+56% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
364 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 76%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
22.8 Crosses 17.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.7

Cruzeiro vs Universidad Catolica Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Universidad Catolica
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
354 Passes 344
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
The Meetings
31.05.2024 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica CON CSA
05.04.2024 Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro CON CSA
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Universidad Catolica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Universidad Catolica nicked a narrow win over Cruzeiro 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Cruzeiro at 66% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Cruzeiro had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Cruzeiro and 0.00 for Universidad Catolica.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Universidad Catolica?

Cruzeiro 1-2 Universidad Catolica in the Copa Libertadores on 16/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Universidad Catolica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 66%, draw 20%, Universidad Catolica 14%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Cruzeiro) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✓ Over 2.5
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