FK Leningradets 1-1 Arsenal Tula — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 16 May 2024

📅16/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.69
Draw
25%
3.04
Away
41%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.45
Over 2.5
33%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.27
No
62%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
12%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
24%
+10.3pp
25%
Draw
30%
-4.5pp
41%
Away Win
47%
-5.8pp
67%
Under 2.5
65%
+1.9pp
33%
Over 2.5
35%
-1.9pp
38%
BTTS Yes
40%
-2.4pp
62%
BTTS No
60%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Leningradets EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal Tula EU Bookmakers 50%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.16/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/0.62
+19% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +57%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
265 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Leningradets
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Arsenal Tula
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
8 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
16.07.2023 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Leningradets RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Leningradets
1-1
AWAY Arsenal Tula
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH FK Leningradets vs Arsenal Tula
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Leningradets and Arsenal Tula couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Arsenal Tula at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (67%) landed while no to both teams scoring (62%) missed.

On the day, FK Leningradets had 39% of the ball to Arsenal Tula's 61%, shots finished 10-12.

What was the final score of FK Leningradets vs Arsenal Tula?

FK Leningradets 1-1 Arsenal Tula in the Russia - FNL on 16/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Leningradets vs Arsenal Tula?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal Tula win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split FK Leningradets 34%, draw 25%, Arsenal Tula 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Arsenal Tula), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal Tula) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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