Volgar Astrakhan 1-0 Neftekhimik — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 16 May 2024

📅16/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
37%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.51
Over 2.5
39%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.09
No
60%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
42%
-7.1pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.9pp
37%
Away Win
29%
+8.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.8pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.9pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.3pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Volgar Astrakhan EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftekhimik EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +17%
1.13/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/0.87
-4% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +27%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
272 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Volgar Astrakhan
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Neftekhimik
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.07.2023 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik 2-1 HT 1-0 Volgar Astrakhan Volgar Astrakhan RUS1
19.03.2023 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik 1-1 HT 0-1 Volgar Astrakhan Volgar Astrakhan RUS1
06.11.2021 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik 0-1 HT 0-1 Volgar Astrakhan Volgar Astrakhan RUS1
24.07.2021 Volgar Astrakhan Volgar Astrakhan 1-0 HT 0-0 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik RUS1
28.03.2021 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik 1-1 HT 0-1 Volgar Astrakhan Volgar Astrakhan RUS1
04.10.2020 Volgar Astrakhan Volgar Astrakhan 3-1 HT 2-0 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Volgar Astrakhan
1-0
AWAY Neftekhimik
50% Ball Possession 50%
7 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Volgar Astrakhan vs Neftekhimik
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Volgar Astrakhan squeezed past Neftekhimik 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Volgar Astrakhan found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Volgar Astrakhan had 50% of the ball to Neftekhimik's 50%, shots finished 7-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Volgar Astrakhan had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Volgar Astrakhan and 0.83 for Neftekhimik.

What was the final score of Volgar Astrakhan vs Neftekhimik?

Volgar Astrakhan 1-0 Neftekhimik in the Russia - FNL on 16/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Volgar Astrakhan vs Neftekhimik?

Before kick-off our model rated an Neftekhimik win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Volgar Astrakhan 35%, draw 28%, Neftekhimik 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Neftekhimik) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Neftekhimik) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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