Green Gully 3-1 Dandenong Thunder — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 16 May 2025

📅16/05/2025 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.38
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
38%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.63
No
43%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
11%
X/1
9%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
38%
-5.2pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.2pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
57%
+0.0pp
43%
BTTS No
43%
-0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Green Gully EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Dandenong Thunder EU Bookmakers 40%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
2.45/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/0.40
-15% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +110%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
304 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 74%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.0 Crosses 18.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Green Gully
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Dandenong Thunder
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.56 xG 2.60
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 8
124 Passes 373
63% Pass Accuracy 81%
7 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
08.02.2025 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 2-1 HT 1-1 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
29.06.2024 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 1-1 HT 0-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
22.03.2024 Green Gully Green Gully 1-1 HT 1-0 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
29.07.2023 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 1-0 HT 0-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
28.04.2023 Green Gully Green Gully 4-2 HT 3-1 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
21.08.2022 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 3-0 HT 2-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
POST-MATCH Green Gully vs Dandenong Thunder
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Green Gully got the better of Dandenong Thunder 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 29% / 38%) promised a tight game; Green Gully found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dandenong Thunder led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Green Gully and 1.67 for Dandenong Thunder.

What was the final score of Green Gully vs Dandenong Thunder?

Green Gully 3-1 Dandenong Thunder in the Australia - National Premier League on 16/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Green Gully vs Dandenong Thunder?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dandenong Thunder win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Green Gully 33%, draw 29%, Dandenong Thunder 38%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Dandenong Thunder) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dandenong Thunder) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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