Famalicao 2-1 Casa Pia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 16 May 2025

Famalicao
2-1 HT 1-0
Casa Pia
📅16/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Famalicao vs Casa Pia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
24%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.82
Over 2.5
41%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.1
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.64
6+ Goals
7%
15.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 33% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.54
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
11%
13.75
X/1
19%
4.47
X/2
9%
8.24
X/X
11%
4.73
2/1
9%
25.0
2/2
9%
6.49
2/X
8%
14.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-4.5pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.9pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
51%
+7.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
49%
-7.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.7pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Famalicao v Casa Pia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Famalicao EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 27%
-3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +2%
1.34/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.22
-8% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
325 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
22.1 Crosses 16.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8

Famalicao vs Casa Pia Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Famalicao
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Casa Pia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
0.84 xG 0.86
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
331 Passes 340
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.01.2025 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-1 HT 1-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
17.05.2024 Famalicao Famalicao 1-2 HT 1-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
13.01.2024 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-2 HT 0-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
13.03.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 1-0 HT 1-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
18.09.2022 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-0 HT 0-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR

Famalicao 2-1 Casa Pia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Famalicao
2-1
AWAY Casa Pia
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
13 Corners 4
296 Passes 240
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
POST-MATCH Famalicao vs Casa Pia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Famalicao edged past Casa Pia 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Famalicao as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Famalicao had 54% of the ball to Casa Pia's 46%, shots finished 18-5.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Famalicao and 0.80 for Casa Pia.

What was the final score of Famalicao vs Casa Pia?

Famalicao 2-1 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 16/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Famalicao vs Casa Pia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Famalicao win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Famalicao 45%, draw 30%, Casa Pia 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Famalicao) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Famalicao) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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