Super Nova 3-1 Ogre United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 16 May 2026

📅16/05/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
22%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
1.8
Over 2.5
59%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.85
No
39%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
5%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
54%
+1.7pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.2pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+0.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
52%
-10.2pp
59%
Over 2.5
48%
+10.2pp
61%
BTTS Yes
50%
+11.4pp
39%
BTTS No
50%
-11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Super Nova EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Ogre United EU Bookmakers 24%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -28% / -28%
1.46/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/2.03
-45% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -71%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
309 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 73%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
21.8 Crosses 17.0
1.2 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Super Nova
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Ogre United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.56 xG 0.39
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 3
239 Passes 283
72% Pass Accuracy 74%
31 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
03.04.2026 Ogre United 1-2 HT 0-2 Super Nova Super Nova LET
10.11.2024 Super Nova Super Nova 3-0 Ogre United LET1
27.07.2024 Ogre United 1-1 HT 1-1 Super Nova Super Nova LET1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Super Nova
3-1
AWAY Ogre United
2.22 xG 0.74
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
337 Passes 186
77% Pass Accuracy 67%
29 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Super Nova vs Ogre United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Super Nova beat Ogre United 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Super Nova as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Super Nova had 60% of the ball to Ogre United's 40%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 2.22 to 0.74.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Super Nova had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Super Nova and 0.67 for Ogre United.

What was the final score of Super Nova vs Ogre United?

Super Nova 3-1 Ogre United in the Latvia - Virsliga on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Super Nova vs Ogre United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Super Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Super Nova 55%, draw 23%, Ogre United 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Super Nova), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Super Nova) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
LET More Latvia - Virsliga
16 May 2026
19:00 Riga FC vs FS Jelgava Analysis →