Uniao Santarem 2-2 Varzim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 16 May 2026

📅16/05/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.38
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.86
Over 2.5
41%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
38%
-1.9pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
35%
Away Win
35%
+0.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
50%
+9.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
50%
-9.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-8.6pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao Santarem EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Varzim EU Bookmakers 38%
-7% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +12%
0.83/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.17
-33% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
357 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao Santarem
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Varzim
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
21.03.2026 Varzim Varzim 1-0 HT 0-0 Uniao Santarem Uniao Santarem POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uniao Santarem
2-2
AWAY Varzim
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
12 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Uniao Santarem vs Varzim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uniao Santarem and Varzim shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Uniao Santarem had 54% of the ball to Varzim's 46%, shots finished 15-11.

What was the final score of Uniao Santarem vs Varzim?

Uniao Santarem 2-2 Varzim in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao Santarem vs Varzim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uniao Santarem win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Uniao Santarem 36%, draw 28%, Varzim 35%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Uniao Santarem) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR3 More Portugal - 3rd Division
16 May 2026
18:30 Academica vs Trofense Analysis →
18:30 Vitoria Guimaraes II vs Amarante Analysis →
18:30 CF Os Belenenses vs Mafra Analysis →