Bragantino 2-1 Juventude — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 16 Jun 2024

📅16/06/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
21%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.78
Over 2.5
41%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.99
No
61%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.03
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.86
6+ Goals
10%
17.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 34% vs market 27.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.06
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.4
X/1
22%
3.67
X/2
9%
10.65
X/X
13%
4.94
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
6%
8.92
2/X
5%
17.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
58%
-3.7pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.3pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.5pp
39%
BTTS Yes
46%
-7.4pp
61%
BTTS No
54%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bragantino EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventude EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
1.80/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.62
-10% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -13%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
363 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 77%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
26.1 Crosses 15.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bragantino
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Juventude
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.94 xG 1.25
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
348 Passes 309
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
01.08.2022 Bragantino 1-0 HT 1-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
12.04.2022 Juventude Juventude 2-2 HT 1-1 Bragantino BR1
01.12.2021 Juventude Juventude 1-0 HT 1-0 Bragantino BR1
14.08.2021 Bragantino 1-2 HT 1-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
23.09.2009 Bragantino 3-2 HT 1-0 Juventude Juventude BR2
20.06.2009 Juventude Juventude 1-0 HT 1-0 Bragantino BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bragantino
2-1
AWAY Juventude
0.48 xG 2.07
36% Ball Possession 64%
6 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 1
226 Passes 463
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 23
9 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Bragantino vs Juventude
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bragantino squeezed past Juventude 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bragantino as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bragantino had 36% of the ball to Juventude's 64%, shots finished 6-14, expected goals 0.48 to 2.07 — on chances, Juventude could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Juventude led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Bragantino and 1.33 for Juventude.

What was the final score of Bragantino vs Juventude?

Bragantino 2-1 Juventude in the Brazil - Serie A on 16/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bragantino vs Juventude?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bragantino win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Bragantino 55%, draw 24%, Juventude 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bragantino) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bragantino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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