Tokyo Verdy 1-0 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - İmparatorluk Cup, 16 Jul 2025

📅16/07/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.56
Over 2.5
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.99
No
55%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.31
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
4.8
6+ Goals
8%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
12%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.7pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.3pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-2.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+2.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.9pp
55%
BTTS No
54%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tokyo Verdy EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -48% / -48%
1.19/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.00
-25% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +63%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
371 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tokyo Verdy
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.47 xG 1.09
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
245 Passes 522
72% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.09.2024 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 2-0 HT 1-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
03.05.2024 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-2 HT 0-1 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tokyo Verdy
1-0
AWAY Sagan Tosu
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tokyo Verdy vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tokyo Verdy squeezed past Sagan Tosu 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tokyo Verdy as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Tokyo Verdy had 51% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 49%, shots finished 12-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Tokyo Verdy had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Tokyo Verdy and 0.00 for Sagan Tosu.

What was the final score of Tokyo Verdy vs Sagan Tosu?

Tokyo Verdy 1-0 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - İmparatorluk Cup on 16/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tokyo Verdy vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tokyo Verdy win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Tokyo Verdy 41%, draw 30%, Sagan Tosu 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tokyo Verdy), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tokyo Verdy) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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