Tokyo Verdy 2-0 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 22 Sep 2024

Tokyo Verdy
2-0 HT 1-0
Sagan Tosu
📅22/09/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Tokyo Verdy vs Sagan Tosu Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.68
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.29
6+ Goals
10%
11.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.2
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
15.0
X/1
17%
3.97
X/2
11%
9.18
X/X
8%
5.41
2/1
7%
22.3
2/2
9%
6.94
2/X
8%
15.6
Value flag · 1/X at 15.0 — our 11% vs market 3.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-6.8pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.0pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+3.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.7pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tokyo Verdy v Sagan Tosu — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tokyo Verdy EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 25%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -3%
3.00/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.57
+72% / -67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
418 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
– Crosses 15.7
– Yellow Cards 1.6

Tokyo Verdy vs Sagan Tosu Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tokyo Verdy
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
2.10 xG 1.33
31% Ball Possession 69%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
212 Passes 568
72% Pass Accuracy 87%
19 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
03.05.2024 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-2 HT 0-1 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP

Tokyo Verdy 2-0 Sagan Tosu — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tokyo Verdy
2-0
AWAY Sagan Tosu
0.84 xG 0.85
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
278 Passes 475
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tokyo Verdy vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tokyo Verdy beat Sagan Tosu 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tokyo Verdy as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tokyo Verdy had 40% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 60%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 0.84 to 0.85.

What was the final score of Tokyo Verdy vs Sagan Tosu?

Tokyo Verdy 2-0 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - J1 League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tokyo Verdy vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tokyo Verdy win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Tokyo Verdy 48%, draw 27%, Sagan Tosu 26%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tokyo Verdy), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tokyo Verdy) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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