Kyoto Sanga 2-2 Gamba Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.86
Over 2.5
40%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.73
No
56%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
3.29
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.58
6+ Goals
8%
14.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 37% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.23
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
8%
13.2
X/1
14%
4.97
X/2
14%
6.12
X/X
11%
4.63
2/1
10%
26.5
2/2
16%
4.31
2/X
9%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-4.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
36%
Away Win
32%
+3.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
50%
+10.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
50%
-10.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
54%
-9.8pp
56%
BTTS No
46%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 36%
-26% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +9%
1.24/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.30
-19% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
343 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 74%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
21.5 Crosses 14.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kyoto Sanga
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gamba Osaka
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.85 xG 1.39
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
252 Passes 316
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
03.04.2024 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-0 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
08.07.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-0 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
24.05.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-1 HT 0-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JLK
15.04.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-1 HT 1-1 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
08.03.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-3 HT 1-2 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JLK
30.07.2022 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-1 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kyoto Sanga
2-2
AWAY Gamba Osaka
1.36 xG 3.42
38% Ball Possession 62%
15 Total Shots 22
6 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 9
160 Passes 316
61% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 44
22 Crosses 32
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kyoto Sanga vs Gamba Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kyoto Sanga and Gamba Osaka couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kyoto Sanga had 38% of the ball to Gamba Osaka's 62%, shots finished 15-22, expected goals 1.36 to 3.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Kyoto Sanga and 1.00 for Gamba Osaka.

What was the final score of Kyoto Sanga vs Gamba Osaka?

Kyoto Sanga 2-2 Gamba Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kyoto Sanga vs Gamba Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kyoto Sanga win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Kyoto Sanga 37%, draw 27%, Gamba Osaka 36%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kyoto Sanga) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
22 Sep 2024
10:00 Nagoya Grampus vs Kawasaki Frontale Analysis →
12:00 Albirex Niigata vs Vissel Kobe Analysis →
12:00 Tokyo Verdy vs Sagan Tosu Analysis →
12:30 Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Yokohama F. Marinos Analysis →
13:00 Shonan Bellmare vs Cerezo Osaka Analysis →